[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 March 18 issued 2350 UT on 18 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Mar 19 10:50:22 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 18Mar. There were no 
earthward directed CMEs observed in the available LASCO coronagraph 
imagery and region 2702 (N19W59) remains quiet and stable. Solar 
wind speed (Vsw) steadily increased over the UT day from 525km/s 
at 00UT to be ~575km/s at the time of this report. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated 
between +/-3nT from 00UT-11UT. Bz then increased in magnitude, 
ranging from +8nT and -9nT with sustained southward Bz periods 
between 17UT-22UT. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected to 
diminish after the next 12-24 hours due to a weakening influence 
of the high speed solar wind stream from the recent northern 
hemisphere located negative polarity recurrent coronal hole. 
Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   21123334
      Cocos Island         8   21112333
      Darwin              11   22013334
      Townsville          12   22123334
      Learmonth           14   31123344
      Alice Springs       11   21113334
      Culgoora            11   21123334
      Gingin              14   31123344
      Canberra            12   22123334
      Launceston          15   22224434
      Hobart              13   21124334    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    33   22136654
      Casey               21   44332335
      Mawson              48   43224477
      Davis               50   43323577

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   4232 2123     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar    13    Unsettled
20 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions observed across 
the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Mostly Unsettled 
conditions expected for 19Mar with possible isolated Active periods. 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 20Mar-21Mar due diminishing 
effects of the recent coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable MUFs observed over the last 24 hours with brief 
enhancements for low latitudes, mildly depressed MUFs for mid 
latitudes and occasional periods of disturbed ionospheric support 
for high latitude regions. Similar variable HF conditions expected 
for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Mar    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      3
Apr      2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
20 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed on 18Mar with brief 
enhancements during local day for Northern AUS regions and depressed 
MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ regions. MUF's expected to be near predicted 
monthly values for all regions with possible mild depressions 
for Southern AUS/NZ and Northern AUS regions for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 497 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   205000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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