[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 March 18 issued 2330 UT on 08 Mar 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 9 10:30:29 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 8 March. Currently
there are no sunspots on the solar disc visible from the Earthside.
No earthward directed CMEs were visible in the LASCO images over
the last 24 hours. However, the possibility of a minor effect
of the CME of 6 March on the Earth cannot be completely ruled
out. As per the available solar wind data, the solar wind speed
stayed mostly between 340 and 380 km/s today (UT day 08 March).
The IMF Bt varied mostly between 1 nT and 6 nT during the day,
whereas the Bz component varied between -4 nT and +5 nT during
this time. The solar wind may possibly show some strengthening
on 9 and 10 March due to the expected effect of a northern hemisphere
positive polarity polar connected coronal hole and some possible
minor effect of the CME of 6 March. Very Low levels of solar
flare activity are expected for the next three UT days, 9-11
March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11220010
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 2 11120011
Townsville 3 11220011
Learmonth 3 21121010
Alice Springs 2 11120010
Culgoora 3 11220011
Gingin 3 21211010
Canberra 2 01220010
Launceston 3 12221010
Hobart 2 12210000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 01100000
Casey 7 24321000
Mawson 5 22222011
Davis 7 13333000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0010 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Mar 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed across
the Australian region today (UT day 08 March). The Antarctic
region experienced mainly quiet levels, with some unsettled periods.
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions may be expected from 9 to
11 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values during
the UT day 8 March. There were minor to mild depressions in MUFs
in some low latitude regions during the local day. Minor to moderate
MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions may be expected
from 9 to 11 March due to possible slight rise in geomagnetic
activity during this period and continued very low levels of
solar activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 3
Apr 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
10 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
11 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mainly near predicted monthly values in the
Southern Australian region during the UT day 8 March. There were
minor to mild depressions in MUFs in the Northern Australian
regions during the local day. Minor to moderate MUF depressions
and degradations in HF conditions may be expected in the Australian/NZ
regions from 9 to 11 March due to possible slight rise in geomagnetic
activity during this period and continued very low levels of
solar activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list