[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 June 18 issued 2351 UT on 23 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 24 09:51:57 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              75/13              72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 23Jun. There is currently 
two numbered sunspots on the visible disk, Region 2715 (N04W20) 
and Region 2713 (N04W75) which produced minor B-class events. 
No earthward directed CME's were observed in available LASCO 
imagery. The solar wind speed gradually increased over the UT 
day from 324km/s at 00UT to be ~500km/s at the time of this report. 
This increase was due to the onset of high speed solar wind stream 
from a north pole connected positive polarity coronal hole. The 
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between -5nT and 
+8nT between 00UT-07UT. Bz magnitude increased and ranged between 
-15nT and 12nT between 07UT-13UT after which it has ranged between 
-9nT and 7nT up until the time of this report. Solar wind speed 
is expected to be elevated over the next 24-36 hours. Solar activity 
is expected to be Very Low for the next three days with only 
a slight chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 23 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      11   12244212
      Darwin              10   1324320-
      Townsville          14   2324430-
      Learmonth           12   1224430-
      Alice Springs       11   1224420-
      Gingin              10   1223430-
      Canberra             8   1213420-
      Launceston          14   13145222
      Hobart              12   12135222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    30   0215730-
      Casey                9   2233320-
      Mawson              20   4534321-

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1120 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun    13    Unsettled to Active
25 Jun     9    Quiet to Unsettled
26 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24 
hours with a minor storm period at high latitudes in the AUS/NZ 
region due to the onset of the high speed solar wind stream from 
the north pole connected positive polarity coronal hole. Unsettled 
conditions with possible Active periods expected for 24Jun and 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 25Jun-26Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for 23Jun 
with some disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes and 
mild enhancements for low-mid latitudes. Similar HF conditions 
expected for the next 3 days with MUFs near predicted monthly 
values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jun    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun    15    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the last 24 hours with periods of notable enhancements observed 
at all regions during local night. Variable ionospheric support 
observed for Antarctic regions ranging from slight enhancements 
to poor/disturbed conditions. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days with MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly 
values and possible mild enhancements for Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions for 24Jun-25Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jun
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:    32700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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