[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 June 18 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 13 09:30:25 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low today (UT day, 12 June). 
There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the solar disk 
visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
today. The solar wind speed stayed close to 300 km/s today. The 
IMF Bt varied between 2 and 5 nT today whereas the Bz component 
of IMF varied mostly between +/-3 nT during this time. The solar 
wind stream may show some strengthening on 13 June and solar 
wind speed may show minor to moderate enhancements on this day 
due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole. For the next 
3 UT days, 13-15 June, solar activity is expected to remain at 
Very Low levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11101000
      Townsville           1   11101001
      Learmonth            1   11200000
      Alice Springs        0   01100000
      Gingin               1   11100000
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Launceston           1   12100000
      Hobart               0   11000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12200000
      Mawson               7   33100004

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1000 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jun     5    Quiet
15 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region 
on UT day 12 June were at Quiet levels. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to vary from Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 
13 June due to the influence of a recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic 
activity may be expected to stay at Quiet levels on 14 and 15 
June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On UT day 12 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. Expect mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 
14 and 15 June. Minor MUF depressions may be possible on UT day 
13 June due to some possible rise in geomagnetic activity levels 
on this day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jun     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15%
14 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
15 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 12 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values for AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 14 and 15 June in this region. Minor MUF depressions 
may be possible on UT day 13 June due to some possible rise in 
geomagnetic activity levels on this day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 297 km/sec  Density:    8.5 p/cc  Temp:    11400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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