[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 June 18 issued 2331 UT on 06 Jun 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 7 09:31:02 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jun             08 Jun             09 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 6 June. A 
C1 solar flare was observed at 06/1100 UT from region 2712. There 
are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk. 
For the next 3 UT days, 7-9 June, solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels with a slight chance for C-class 
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT day, 
6 June, in LASCO C2 imagery up to 06/1612 UT. During the last 
24 h, the solar winds remained moderate. The solar wind speed 
varied between 420 km/s and 460 km/s, currently around 430 km/s. 
The IMF Bt started this period varying in the range 1-4 nT, then 
started a gradual increase after 06/1200 UT, currently around 
10 nT. The Bz component of IMF had an extended southward period 
after 06/1100 UT, reaching a minimum of -7.8 nT at 06/1822 UT. 
The outlook for 7-9 June is for the solar wind speed to gradually 
decrease to nominal values.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled, 
with an isolated Active period

Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11001231
      Darwin               4   10101231
      Townsville           4   11101231
      Learmonth            4   10002232
      Alice Springs        3   00101231
      Culgoora             4   21001231
      Gingin               7   10102342
      Canberra             3   01001231
      Launceston           6   11002242
      Hobart               3   01001231    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     3   00001222
      Casey                7   22101242
      Mawson              19   32312355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2211 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jun     6    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods
08 Jun     5    Quiet
09 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions across the Australian region 
started the UT day, 6 June, at Quiet levels, then increased to 
Quiet-Unsettled with some locations experiencing Active levels. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be Quiet-Unsettled on UT 
day, 7 June, with a slight chance of isolated Active periods. 
Mostly Quiet levels are expected on the UT days, 8-9 June, as 
the solar wind returns to nominal values.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jun     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      4
Jun      -1
Jul      -2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 6 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values for AUS/NZ regions. Expect mostly near predicted monthly 
values for the next three UT days, 7-9 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 436 km/sec  Density:    7.9 p/cc  Temp:   169000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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