[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 31 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 30 July. There
are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk visible
from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO
C2 imagery up to 30/1548 and in C3 imagery up to 30/1542 UT.
During the UT day 30 July, the solar wind speed varied mostly
between 270 km/s and 330 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied mostly
between 4 to 9 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied between -6
and +5 nT, staying mostly positive in the first half and mostly
negative in the second half of the UT day 30 July. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 31
July to 02 August. The solar wind is expected to remain at nominal
levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 01002122
Cocos Island 2 01001022
Darwin 4 11102122
Townsville 3 01102121
Learmonth 4 11002032
Alice Springs 3 01002022
Culgoora 3 11002121
Gingin 3 00101132
Canberra 2 01001021
Launceston 3 01002122
Hobart 2 00001022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 4 12101032
Mawson 14 32022145
Davis 57 11109234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2111 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 5 Quiet
01 Aug 5 Quiet
02 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 30 July. Mainly Quiet levels of global
geomagnetic activity are expected on UT days, 31 July to 02 August.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal
02 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day
30 July, with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements in some
high latitude regions and minor MUF depressions in some mid-latitude
regions. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values and normal
HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days (31 July
to 02 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 0 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 30 July, with periods of minor to mild
MUF enhancements in the Antarctic Region and minor MUF depressions
in northern Australian regions. Mostly near predicted monthly
MUF values and normal HF conditions are expected in the Aus/NZ
regions for the next three UT days (31 July to 02 August).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 22700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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