[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 11 09:30:25 EST 2018 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jul             12 Jul             13 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 10 July). 
There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disk visible from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed today in LASCO C2 imagery up to 10/1536 UT. The solar 
wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 370 km/s to 330 km/s 
during the UT day today. Today the IMF Bt varied mostly between 
1 nT and 11 nT reaching a maximum of 13 nT at 1207 UT, whereas 
the Bz component of IMF varied mostly between -3 nT and +7 nT 
during this time. Very low levels of solar activity may be 
expected for the next three days (UT days 11 to 13 July).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12212100
      Cocos Island         4   12212210
      Darwin               5   12212211
      Townsville           6   12223211
      Learmonth            6   12323100
      Alice Springs        3   12212100
      Gingin               4   12222100
      Canberra             3   12212000
      Launceston           3   12212100
      Hobart               3   12212000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   01122000
      Casey                4   13222000
      Mawson              12   34334100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   1100 0112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
12 Jul     5    Quiet
13 Jul     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet across the Aus region 
today (UT day 10 July). Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity 
may be expected for the next three days (UT days 11 to 13 July) 
with a small possibility of isolated unsettled periods on UT 
day 11 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today 
(UT day 10 July) with MUFs near predicted monthly values 
with periods of minor to moderate enhancements in some 
mid- and high-latitude regions. Mostly normal HF conditions 
may be expected for the next three days (UT days 11 to 13 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jul    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jul     8    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the 
Aus/NZ regions today (UT day 10 July) with MUFs mostly near 
predicted monthly values with periods of minor to moderate 
enhancements in the Southern Aus regions. Mostly normal HF 
conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions for the next 
three days (UT days 11 to 13 July).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   208000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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