[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 8 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for the UT day, 07 July, with
only few weak B-class flares. There are currently no numbered
sunspot regions on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT
days, 08-10 July, solar activity is expected to remain at very
low to low levels, with a chance of C-class flare. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed during the UT day, 07 July, via LASCO C2 imagery
up to 07/2000 UT. The solar wind speed varied between 480 km/s
and 520 km/s. The solar wind speed at the time of writing this
report (07/2300 UT) was 485 km/s. The IMF Bt during the last
24 hours were mostly steady near 5 nT; the Bz component of IMF
were between -3 nT and 2 nT. The outlook for today (08 July)
is for the solar wind speed to decrease gradually from moderate
to nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11110110
Darwin 3 22110110
Townsville 2 11110111
Learmonth 3 12210021
Alice Springs 1 11110010
Gingin 3 11210120
Canberra 1 11110010
Launceston 2 11111110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 1 01111000
Casey 6 22221131
Mawson 14 43321234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3212 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 5 Quiet
09 Jul 5 Quiet
10 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 07 July. Expect magnetic
activity to be mostly at quiet levels and occasionally it may
reach unsettled levels, today (UT day 08 July).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal Normal
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days (8-10 July).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 07 July, MUFs were generally near predicted
monthly values at most AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor enhancements
observed during the nighttime mostly over the Southern Australian
region. Incidence of sporadic-E were observed at some Australian
region. Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected for the next
three UT days, 08-10 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 8.4 p/cc Temp: 180000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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