[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 5 09:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 04 July,
with no solar flares. There is currently no numbered sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 05-07
July, solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT day, 04 July,
via LASCO C2 imagery up to 04/2012 UT. The solar wind was near
its nominal levels of 320 km/s during the last 24 hours. The
IMF Bt during the last 24 hours were mostly steady near 5 nT;
the Bz component of IMF were between -5 nT and 5 nT. The two
day outlook (05-06 July) is for the solar wind speed to remain
near its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 01111010
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 2 02111010
Alice Springs 1 01101000
Culgoora 1 01111000
Gingin 2 02101010
Canberra 1 01101000
Launceston 2 01112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 4 12211121
Mawson 6 11200142
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 0000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jul 5 Quiet
06 Jul 5 Quiet
07 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 04 July. Expect magnetic
conditions to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT
days, 05-07 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
07 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days (5-7 July).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jul 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 04 July, MUFs were generally near predicted
monthly values at most AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor enhancement
observed during the nighttime over the Australian region. Incidence
of sporadic-E were observed at some Australian region. Similar
ionospheric conditions are expected for the three UT days (05-07
Jul).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 10.8 p/cc Temp: 25400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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