[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 3 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 02 July,
with no solar flares. There is currently no numbered sunspot
regions on the visible solar disk. For the next 3 UT days, 03-05
July, solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the UT day, 02 July,
via LASCO C2 imagery up to 02/1948 UT. The solar wind was near
its nominal levels, 320-375 km/s. The IMF Bt during the last
24 hours were mostly steady near 3 nT; the Bz component of IMF
were between -1 nT and 1 nT. The two day outlook (03-04 July)
is for the solar wind speed to remain near its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 0 00100000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 11100001
Learmonth 0 00100000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Culgoora 0 00100001
Gingin 1 10100010
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 0 01100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 11200010
Mawson 5 21101132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0000 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 5 Quiet
04 Jul 5 Quiet
05 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 02 July. Expect magnetic
conditions to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT
days, 03-05 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal Normal
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 7
Jul -2
Aug -3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul -2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 02 July, MUFs were generally near predicted
monthly values at most AUS/NZ regions with periods of minor depression
observed during the daytime over the Northern Australian region.
Incidence of sporadic-E were observed at some Australian region.
Similar ionospheric conditions are expected for the three UT
days (03-05 Jul).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 13500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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