[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 30 10:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jan 31 Jan 01 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 29 Jan. There is currently
no numbered region on the visible disk. Very Low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind speed remained
around 350km/s over the UT day 29 Jan. Bz, the north-south component
of the IMF ranged between +/-4nT over the UT day. Solar wind
parameters are expected to range between nominal values to slightly
enhanced at times over the next 3 days due to minor coronal hole
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Cocos Island 1 11110010
Darwin 2 11111011
Townsville 3 11111012
Learmonth 3 11111111
Gingin 3 11111021
Canberra 2 01111011
Launceston 3 11211111
Hobart 2 01211011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jan :
Macquarie Island 2 01022000
Casey 9 23331122
Mawson 7 32212122
Davis 9 23332121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 2011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed for the Australian region
for 29 Jan. Mostly Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days
with possible Unsettled periods due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jan -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec -10
Jan 4
Feb 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jan -10 Near predicted monthly values
01 Feb -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions observed across Aus/NZ regions
on UT day 29 Jan. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also
evident. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days
with possible depressed MUFs due to low levels of EUV ionising
radiation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jan
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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