[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 January 18 issued 2354 UT on 22 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 23 10:54:05 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
region 2696 (S11W71) producing a B9.5 flare and an associated 
CME. The CME was directed to the southwest and is not expected 
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated 
under the influence of a negative polarity coronal holes, ranging 
between 500km/s to 580kms and is ~520km/s at the time of this 
report. The north-south component of IMF, Bz ranged between -5nT 
and 7nT over the UT day. Very Low levels of solar activity are 
expected for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23221222
      Darwin               5   22111222
      Townsville           7   32221222
      Learmonth            9   22222323
      Culgoora             6   22221222
      Gingin               9   23121233
      Camden               7   23221222
      Canberra             7   23221222
      Launceston          11   33321332
      Hobart               8   33221222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     9   23221331
      Casey               28   55442235
      Mawson              38   55332366
      Davis               24   44432345

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       NA
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1022 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Jan     6    Quiet
25 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
last 24 hours. Similar conditions expected for 23Jan with solar 
wind speed expected to remain slightly elevated. Anticipated 
diminishing influence of the current negative polarity coronal 
hole high speed solar wind stream from 24Jan which will see solar 
wind speeds decrease and mostly Quiet conditions for 24Jan-25Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed 22Jan with 
occasional minor MUF depressions and notable sporadic E at mid 
latitudes stations in the AUS/NZ region. Similar conditions are 
expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jan   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -10
Jan      4
Feb      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
24 Jan   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
25 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions observed for Northern AUS, Southern 
AUS/NZ regions as well as notable sporadic E conditions for SWS 
Canberra,Camden,Brisbane and Townsville stations between 10UT-16UT. 
Minor geomagnetic activity and continued very low levels of solar 
activity for 23Jan may result in minor to moderate MUF depressions 
23 January. HF conditions should see a return to predicted monthly 
values from 25 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    9.3 p/cc  Temp:   178000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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