[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 January 18 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jan 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 20 10:30:24 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 19 January). 
There is one sunspot region (2696, S12W29 at 2245UT/19 January) 
on the solar disk visible from the earth. Due to a solar sector 
boundary crossing and subsequent effect of a coronal hole the 
solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 325 to 380 km/s 
today. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied mostly between 
+4/-6 nT today, whereas the total IMF, Bt, mostly varied between 
5 and 9 nT during this time. Very low levels of solar activity 
may be expected for the next three days (20 to 22 January) with 
a slight chance of isolated C-class flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221122
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Townsville           6   22221122
      Learmonth            6   22221122
      Culgoora             5   22221022
      Gingin               7   22220133
      Camden               7   22321122
      Canberra             6   22320022
      Launceston           8   23321122
      Hobart               5   22320012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     6   22330011
      Casey               14   34332133
      Mawson              45   35532267
      Davis               13   23432133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan    15    Unsettled to Active
21 Jan    12    Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible
22 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels across the 
Australian region today (UT day 19 January). Enhancements in 
geomagnetic activity to active levels are expected on 20 and 
21 January due to the effect of a high speed solar wind from 
a negative polarity recurrent coronal hole. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to show gradual decline to unsettled and then quiet 
levels on 22 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor
21 Jan      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor
22 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today (19 
January) with some periods of minor MUF depressions in some mid-latitude 
regions. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing were also evident. 
Expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity and continued very 
low levels of solar activity may result in minor to significant 
MUF depressions on 20 and 21 January. HF conditions may improve 
towards more normal levels on 22 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jan     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      -10
Jan      4
Feb      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                40%
21 Jan    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                40%
22 Jan     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ 
regions today (19 January) with some periods of minor MUF depressions 
in the Southern parts of the region. Periods of Sporadic E blanketing 
were also evident. Expected enhancements in geomagnetic activity 
and continued very low levels of solar activity may result in 
minor to significant MUF depressions in the region on 20 and 
21 January. HF conditions may improve towards more normal levels 
on 22 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 319 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:    11600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list