[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 February 18 issued 2330 UT on 06 Feb 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 7 10:30:25 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 06 February,
with several B-class flares and one long duration C-class (C1.0),
all erupting from activity Region 2699. This Region 2699 is currently
located at S09E52 and is threatening to produce more stronger
flares. Low levels of solar flare activity is expected for the
next three days (7-9 Feb), with a chance of C-class flares and
a remote chance of an isolated M-class flare. No LASCO C2 imagery
data were available for UT day 06 Feb. Investigation of other
remote sensing imagery data indicate that there has been no Earth-directed
CMEs during the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed on UT day
06 February trended near 440 km/s. During the UT day 6 February,
the IMF Bt fluctuated between 2 nT and 6 nT. The Bz component
of IMF fluctuated between -4 nT and 4 nT, with no significant
period of southward Bz. The two day outlook (07-08 Feb) is for
the solar wind speed to be near background level to weakly enhanced
levels in response of a small low latitude extension of the northern
polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11132011
Cocos Island 2 11020011
Darwin 4 11132011
Townsville 5 11132111
Learmonth 5 21132012
Alice Springs 3 11032001
Culgoora 5 12132011
Gingin 5 20132012
Canberra 5 12132011
Launceston 6 12133012
Hobart 4 12132001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 02144000
Casey 13 44333012
Mawson 13 23322115
Davis 9 23332112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2221 3101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 7 Quiet
08 Feb 7 Quiet
09 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet level across
the Australian region during the UT day, 6 February. Mostly unsettled
conditions were experienced in the Antarctic region. The two
day outlook (7-8 Feb) for the magnetic activity to be mostly
at quiet levels and at times may reach unsettled levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted
levels, today (07 February).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan -6
Feb 4
Mar 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions to near monthly predicted MUFs
were observed across Aus/NZ regions on UT day 07 February. Incidence
of Sporadic E blanketing were still evident over some Australian
ionosonde sites. The two day outlook (8-9 Feb) is for MUFs to
remain mostly near monthly predicted levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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