[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 23 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 24 10:30:18 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 23 December.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible solar disc.
Solar activity is expected to remain Very Low for the next three
UT days, 24-26 December. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery up to 23/1936 UT. The solar
wind during the last 24 hours was near its nominal levels and
ranged from 300 km/s to 375 km/s. During this period Btotal was
mostly steady near 4 nT. Bz ranged from +/-3 nT. Expect the solar
wind to remain near its nominal levels for the next three UT
days, 24-26 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 1 10001011
Cocos Island 0 10000010
Darwin 3 10113011
Townsville 2 10111011
Learmonth 1 10001111
Alice Springs 2 22000001
Culgoora 1 00001011
Canberra 0 00000000
Launceston 2 10101111
Hobart 1 10100011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Dec :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Mawson 6 21102133
Davis 6 22212131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 1100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 4 Quiet
25 Dec 4 Quiet
26 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet levels on
UT day 23 December over the Australian and Antarctica region.
Mostly Quiet levels are expected for the next UT three days,
24-26 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to weakly depressed MUFs were observed
over most regions on UT day 23 December. Similar HF propagation
conditions are expected for today, UT day 24 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values
25 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values
26 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 23 December, MUFs were mostly near predicted
monthly values across the Australian region. Sporadic E layers
were seen across the Australian region. Near predicted to weakly
depressed MUFs are expected for the next three days, as a consequence
of very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 52800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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