[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 December 18 issued 2330 UT on 11 Dec 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 12 10:30:20 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 11 December.
There is currently one unnumbered sunspot region on the visible
solar disc. Solar activity is expected to stay Very Low for the
next three UT days, 12-14 December. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 11 December,
the solar wind speed gradually decreased from 580 km/s to currently
around 500 km/s. This is due to high-speed solar wind streams
associated with a large recurrent coronal hole. During the last
24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) fluctuated around 4 nT and the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) fluctuated between +/-4 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to continue to decrease as the effects of the
coronal hole wane, reaching nominal values by UT day 13 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 12221221
Cocos Island 3 11111121
Darwin 4 22111211
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 5 12221221
Alice Springs 5 12121221
Culgoora 5 12220222
Gingin 6 12121232
Canberra 5 12130221
Launceston 7 22231222
Hobart 5 12230121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 11340211
Casey 27 46531333
Mawson 20 24332453
Davis 20 23442542
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2333 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 6 Quiet, with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods
13 Dec 5 Quiet
14 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Australian region on UT day 11 December, with some isolated
Unsettled periods observed at higher latitudes. Quiet to minor
storm levels were observed in Antarctica. This was in response
to high-speed solar wind streams associated with a large recurrent
coronal hole. During the next UT day, 12 December, the global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly Quiet, with possible
Unsettled periods as the effects of the coronal hole wane, returning
to Quiet conditions on UT days 13-14 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: On UT day 11 December, there were significant MUF depressions
over the Southern Hemisphere as compared to the monthly predicted
levels due to very low levels of ionising radiation from the
Sun. Similar depressions are possible on UT day 12 December as
the solar effects persist.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec -37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov -32
Dec -8
Jan -9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec -35 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
13 Dec -35 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
14 Dec -35 Depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 11 December, there were minor to moderate
MUF depressions across the Australian region as compared to the
monthly predicted levels. Sporadic E layers were seen across
the Australian region and in Antarctica. Similar conditions are
expected for UT days, 12-14 December, as a consequence of the
continued very low levels of ionising radiation from the Sun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 607 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 377000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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