[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 30 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 31 09:30:26 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 30 Aug. There are no
sunspots on the visible disc. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery up to 30/1812 UT. During the last
UT day, 30 Aug, the solar wind speed was elevated and gradually
decreasing from 500 km/s to 440 km/s up to 0940 UT, then it dropped
to 407 km/s and varied in the range 360-407 km/s during the remainder
of the UT day. The IMF Bt was in the range 2-5 nT, gradually
increasing on average. The Bz component of IMF was varying from
-2 to +2 nT without significant periods of negative Bz. Solar
activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the next
3 UT days, 31 Aug and 1-2 Sep. Solar wind speed is expected to
remain near its nominal levels over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11200011
Cocos Island 1 10110010
Darwin 2 11200011
Townsville 3 22200011
Learmonth 2 11200011
Alice Springs 2 01200011
Culgoora 2 11200011
Gingin 2 11200021
Canberra 1 11200000
Launceston 3 12300011
Hobart 2 12200011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 11100000
Casey 10 34400121
Mawson 14 32212054
Davis 62 23225931
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 7 Quiet
01 Sep 6 Quiet
02 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
during the UT day 30 Aug. Antarctic region experienced mostly
Quiet to Active conditions during the last 24 hours. Quiet global
geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days, 31
Aug and 1-2 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed over the last
24 hours with near predicted monthly MUFs. Incidents of poor
ionospheric support were observed at high latitudes in the southern
hemisphere during local night. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 31 Aug and 1-2 Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug -3 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep -3 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep -3 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: During 30 Aug MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values across the Aus/NZ region. Mildly depressed MUFs were observed
across the Northern Australian region during local day. In Antarctica,
MUFs were near predicted monthly values if F layer existed, i.e.
mostly during local day. Incidents of poor ionospheric support
were observed in Antarctica during local night. Mostly near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 31 Aug and
1-2 Sep, across the Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:42%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 531 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 310000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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