[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 August 18 issued 2351 UT on 24 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 25 09:51:44 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Aug 26 Aug 27 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 24Aug. There are currently
two regions on the visible disk, region 2719 (S08W22) which produced
a B1.6 flare at 2158UT and new region 2720 (N08W24) which produced
a B1.0 flare at 1250UT. There were no earth directed CME's observed
in available imagery. The solar wind speed (Vsw) remained at
ambient levels, beginning the UT day at ~375km/s and gradually
declining to be ~325km/s at the time of this report. Bz which
is the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) ranged between +/-3nT between 00UT-10UT. Bz then rapidly
went southward reaching -6nT at 1114UT and then slowly progressed
northward, ranging between 0nT and 3nT for the later half of
the UT day. This behaviour of the IMF in conjunction with a notable
increase in the density that was observed from 06UT could be
attributed to the weak, slow moving CME from 20Aug. Solar wind
speed is expected to remain at ambient levels with a slight chance
of enhancements in solar wind parameters over the next 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels for the
next 3 days with the slight chance of a C-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 01223100
Darwin 4 11213101
Townsville 5 11223111
Learmonth 3 00213100
Alice Springs 4 01223101
Culgoora 2 01122100
Gingin 4 01223001
Canberra 3 01222000
Launceston 5 01233100
Hobart 2 00222000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 00133200
Casey 7 33222200
Mawson 11 22202225
Davis 8 12323122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 2110 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Aug 12 Unsettled
26 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 24 August and
is current for 24-25 Aug. Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed
over the Australian region for 24Aug. Unsettled conditions are
expected for 25Aug with the chance of Active periods. Quiet to
Unsettled conditions for 26Aug and mostly Quiet conditions expected
for 27Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with only minor depressions for mid latitudes and occasional
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected for the next 3 days with possible depressed MUF's
for mid-high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Aug 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% between 05UT-10UT.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
26 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
27 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions observed for Northern AUS regions
during local day. Enhanced conditions during the first half of
the UT day for Antarctic regions. MUFs near predicted monthly
values for all other regions. Similar HF conditions are expected
for next 3 days with only minor depressions expected for Northern
and Southern AUS/NZ regions and periods of disturbed ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 155000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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