[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 August 18 issued 2330 UT on 18 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 19 09:30:24 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 18 Aug.
There is currently one small sunspot region magnetically simple
on the visible solar disk. For the next three UT days, 19-21
Aug, the solar activity is expected to remain at Very Low levels.
During the UT day, 18 Aug the solar wind speed remained slightly
enhanced under the continued influence of a positive polarity
recurrent coronal hole but steadily decreased, currently near
450 km/s. The total IMF Bt remained steady around 5 nT during
the past 24 hours. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-4
nT. The outlook for today, 19 Aug is for the solar wind speed
to continue decreasing to its nominal levels. From UT day 20
Aug, the solar wind is expected to increase again in response
to an approaching negative polarity coronal hole. The STEREO
A satellite experienced solar winds of near 600 km/s associated
with this coronal hole, similar solar wind strengths are expected
at Earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 12343200
Darwin 8 13333101
Townsville 9 13333210
Learmonth 7 12333200
Alice Springs 7 12333200
Culgoora 6 12332200
Gingin 9 12333311
Canberra 8 12342200
Launceston 16 23453310
Hobart 12 12352310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Aug :
Macquarie Island 22 13563300
Casey 10 24332211
Mawson 27 34442426
Davis 69 33442395
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 13 4422 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 7 Mostly Quiet
20 Aug 20 Quiet to Active
21 Aug 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels
across the Australian region with one isolated Active to Minor
Storm period around 18/1000 UT. Expect magnetic conditions to
be mostly Quiet today, 19 Aug, as the influence of the coronal
hole declines. Quiet to Active conditions are expected from 20
Aug in response to CIR and subsequent HSS associated with a recurrent
coronal hole. A period of significant southward Bz component
could produce isolated Minor Storm levels on 20 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
21 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug -5 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across the
Aus/NZ regions on UT day 18, with Minor MUF depressions in the
Northern Australian region during local day. Incidents of Spread
F and Sporadic E were observed at some Australian sites. Mostly
normal to moderately enhanced MUFs are expected in the Aus/NZ
regions for the next two UT days (19-20 Aug). Periods of moderately
degraded conditions are possible on 21 Aug due to expected increase
of geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 483 km/sec Density: 7.2 p/cc Temp: 259000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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