[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 August 18 issued 2335 UT on 15 Aug 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 16 09:35:45 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 15 Aug.
There is currently one small sunspot magnetically simple on the
visible solar disk, region 2718 (S07E42). No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed today, 15 Aug in available LASCO C2 and C3 imagery.
For the next 3 UT days, 16-18 Aug, solar activity is expected
to remain at Very Low levels with a slight chance of an isolated
C-class flare. The solar wind speed was ~340m/s and began to
increase from 0400UT onwards to be 500 Km/s at the time of this
report. Bz was mostly neutral until 0400UT after which it decreased
in magnitude varied between +/- 9 nT with extended southward
periods while Bt increased from 4 nT to 10 nT during this period.
These enhanced solar wind speeds are in response to the arrival
of CIR ahead of HSS associated with a recurrent coronal hole.
The solar wind stream is expected to strengthen further over
the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 11134223
Darwin 10 22234212
Townsville 12 21244223
Learmonth 16 12245323
Alice Springs 10 11234213
Culgoora 9 21134222
Gingin 14 11135333
Canberra 9 11134222
Launceston 14 11145223
Hobart 11 11144223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 21 00355442
Casey 12 23233233
Mawson 48 32344667
Davis 49 22433775
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 1000 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 20 Quiet to Active
17 Aug 12 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet to Active levels across
the Australian region during the UT day, 15 Aug. This was caused
by the arrival of CIR ahead of HSS associated with a recurrent
coronal hole and a long period of southward Bz component. Expect
magnetic conditions to remain at Quiet to Active levels, today
16 Aug then Quiet to Unsettled conditions on UT days, 17-18 Aug,
as the influence of the coronal hole declines. A period of significant
southward Bz component could produce isolated Minor Storm levels
over the next 24 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Periods of moderately degraded HF propagation conditions
are possible over 24-48 hours due to current geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 6
Aug -3
Sep -4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs were observed over the Northern
Australian between 03-07 UT. At other times, MUFs over Australasia
were mostly near the monthly predicted values. Incidents of Spread
F and Sporadic E were observed at some Australian sites. Periods
of Minor to Moderate MUF depressions are possible on 16-17 Aug
due to recent increase of geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 10600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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