[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 July 18 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jul 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 1 09:30:26 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Aug             02 Aug             03 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 31 July. There 
are currently no numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk visible 
from the Earthside. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in LASCO 
C2 imagery up to 31/2048 and in C3 imagery up to 31/2042 UT. 
A filament eruption was observed between 4 and 7 UT/31 July in 
the Learmonth H-alpha and SDO AIA 304 and AIA 193 images. No CME 
was seen lifting off the Sun after this eruption. During the 
UT day 31 July, the solar wind speed varied mostly between 300 
km/s and 330 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied mostly between 1 to 
9 nT. The Bz component of IMF varied between -3 and +8 nT. Very 
Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 1 to 3 August. The solar wind is expected to remain 
at nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11100111
      Cocos Island         2   11110021
      Darwin               3   11101112
      Townsville           3   21101112
      Learmonth            2   11100121
      Alice Springs        2   11000112
      Culgoora             2   11100111
      Gingin               2   11100121
      Canberra             1   11000111
      Launceston           3   21100211
      Hobart               1   11000111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000100
      Casey                5   23110121
      Mawson              12   42100153
      Davis               10   22211052

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1100 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Aug     5    Quiet
02 Aug     5    Quiet
03 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 31 July. Mainly Quiet levels of global 
geomagnetic activity are expected on UT days, 01 to 03 August.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on UT day 
31 July, with periods of minor to mild MUF enhancements. Periods 
of minor MUF depressions were also observed in some mid-latitude 
regions. Mostly near predicted monthly MUF values and normal 
HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days (01 to 
03 August).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jul     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      7
Jul      -2
Aug      -3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Aug     2    Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug     2    Near predicted monthly values
03 Aug     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed in the Aus/NZ 
regions on UT day 31 July, with periods of minor to mild MUF 
enhancements. Periods of minor MUF depressions were also observed 
in some northern areas of the regions. Mostly near predicted 
monthly MUF values and normal HF conditions are expected in the 
Aus/NZ regions for the next three UT days (01 to 03 August).

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 303 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:    19900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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