[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 April 18 issued 2336 UT on 16 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Tue Apr 17 09:36:52 EST 2018

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Apr             18 Apr             19 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was at Very Low levels on UT day 16 April. 
Very Low levels of solar flare activity are expected for the 
next three UT days, 17-19 April, with a remote chance of C-class 
flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
imagery during the last 24 hours. On UT day 16 April the solar 
wind speed was around 300 km/s, currently 281 km/s. The IMF Bt 
ranged between 1 nT and 5 nT and the Bz component of IMF was 
between -3 nT and 2 nT. Solar winds are expected to remain at 
mostly near nominal levels for the next two UT days 17-18 April 
then become enhanced on 19 April due to the influence of a negative-polarity 
equatorial coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000100
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11000101
      Townsville           1   11000101
      Learmonth            1   10000200
      Alice Springs        1   10000101
      Culgoora             0   00000100
      Gingin               0   10000100
      Canberra             0   00000100
      Launceston           2   01011200
      Hobart               0   00001100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010100
      Casey                4   22310101
      Mawson               9   32101105
      Davis                3   22211000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2111 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Apr     4    Quiet
18 Apr     4    Quiet
19 Apr    12    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 16 April. Conditions are 
expected to be at Quiet levels for the next two days (17-18 April) 
then Quiet to Active levels on 19 April due to the influence 
of a coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: For 17 April mostly normal HF conditions are expected, 
with MUFs being mostly near predicted monthly values.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Apr     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr     7    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 16 April, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values over most of the Aus/NZ region, with mild depressions 
in the Northern Australian region. There were a few cases of 
Sporadic E blanketing. The three day outlook (17-19 April) is 
for MUFs to be mostly near predicted monthly levels.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 342 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    17400 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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