[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 15 09:30:26 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Apr             16 Apr             17 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 14 April, 
with no notable solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare 
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 15-17 April. 
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available imagery 
during the last 24 hours. On UT day 14 April the solar wind speed 
gradually decreased from ~450 km/s to ~370 km/s due to the waning 
influence of the high speed stream from the recurrent trans-equatorial 
coronal hole. The IMF Bt ranged between 3 nT and 5 nT and the 
Bz component of IMF was between -4 nT and 3 nT with no significant 
prolonged periods with negative Bz. The two day (15 - 16 April) 
outlook is for the solar winds to remain mostly near nominal 
levels as the effects of the coronal hole wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11012210
      Cocos Island         2   11011210
      Darwin               4   21111211
      Townsville           4   22012211
      Learmonth            4   21002311
      Alice Springs        2   11001200
      Culgoora             3   21012210
      Canberra             2   11002210
      Launceston           4   11012311
      Hobart               3   11002310    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   00001310
      Casey                9   34211311
      Mawson              13   33111344
      Davis                7   23112222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   4221 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Apr     7    Quiet
16 Apr     6    Quiet
17 Apr     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 14 April. Conditions 
are expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next three 
days (15-17 April).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: For 15 April mostly normal HF conditions are expected, 
with MUFs being mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Apr     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
16 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 14 April MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly 
values over the Aus/NZ region. MUFs were mildly enhanced over 
the Niue Island during local day. There were a few cases of Sporadic 
E blanketing over the Australian Ionosonde sites. The three day 
outlook (15-17 April) is for MUFs to be mostly near predicted 
monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 455 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:   203000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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