[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 07 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 8 09:30:22 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 7 April, 
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity 
are expected for the next three UT days, 8-10 April. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available imagery during the last 24 
hours. The solar wind speed on UT day 07 April was near the nominal 
level of 350 km/s; the IMF Bt ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT and 
the Bz component of IMF was between -3 nT and 3 nT. The two day 
outlook (08-09 April) is for the solar wind speed to remain mostly 
near background levels. From UT day 10 April or thereabout, the 
solar wind speed is expected to enhance due to the influence 
of a high speed stream from the low-latitude negative polarity 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111101
      Cocos Island         1   11100001
      Darwin               2   21101101
      Townsville           4   22111111
      Learmonth            2   11111101
      Alice Springs        1   11001101
      Culgoora             2   11111101
      Gingin               2   11101101
      Canberra             1   11011001
      Launceston           4   22112101
      Hobart               2   11111101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   11111000
      Casey                5   32211101
      Mawson               9   22101115
      Davis                8   22123104

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr     5    Quiet
09 Apr     5    Quiet
10 Apr    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 7 April. Mostly quiet magnetic 
conditions are expected for 8-9 April. Conditions may reach unsettled 
to active levels on Apr 10 in response to the arrival of the 
low-latitude coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted 
levels today, 8 Apr.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
09 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
10 Apr    12    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over 
the Aus/NZ region on UT day 6 April during local night and mild 
depression were observed during local day over low latitudes 
regions. There were a few cases of Sporadic E blanketing over 
the Australian Ionosonde sites. The three day outlook (8-10 April) 
is for MUFs to be near predicted monthly levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   142000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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