[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 04 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 5 09:30:22 EST 2018
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 04 April,
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity
is expected for the next three days (05-07 April), with a remote
chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar
wind speed on UT day 04 April was near the nominal level of 330
km/s. During the UT day 04 April, the IMF Bt ranged between 2
nT and 6 nT. The Bz component of IMF was between -4 nT and 3
nT. The two day outlook (05-06 April) is for the solar wind speed
to enhance weakly due to a polar positive polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11011210
Cocos Island 2 11011210
Darwin 2 11011210
Townsville 3 21011112
Learmonth 2 01111210
Alice Springs 2 11011210
Canberra 2 00021110
Launceston 4 11022211
Hobart 2 01021210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 00032100
Casey 6 23211221
Mawson 8 11112243
Davis 5 12211221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1210 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region during the UT day, 04 April. Mostly quiet and
at times unsettled magnetic conditions are expected for next
two days (05-06 April) in response to the effects from a polar
positive polarity coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted
levels, today (05 April).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available .
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 2
Apr 2
May 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 12 Near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 5 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly depressed over the Niue Island Region
and Northern Australian Region on 04 April. Over other Aus/NZ
regions, MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly levels on UT
day 04 April. There were very few incidence of Sporadic E blanketing
over the low latitude Australian Ionosonde sites. The three day
outlook (05-07 Apr) is for MUFs to be near monthly predicted
levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 183000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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