[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 April 18 issued 2330 UT on 02 Apr 2018 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 3 09:30:28 EST 2018


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2018 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Apr             04 Apr             05 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels on UT day 02 April, 
with no solar flares. Very low levels of solar flare activity 
is expected for the next three days (03-05 April), with a weak 
chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed 
in the available imagery during the last 24 hours. The solar 
wind speed on UT day 02 April was slightly above the ambient 
level, varied between 420 and 475 Km/s. During the UT day 02 
April, the IMF Bt was mostly steady near 5 nT and its Bz component 
was between -2 nT and 4 nT. The two day outlook (03-04 Apr) is 
for the solar wind speed to be mostly near ambient levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21011211
      Cocos Island         2   11011011
      Darwin               2   11101201
      Townsville           3   21011211
      Learmonth            4   21111211
      Alice Springs        2   10001211
      Canberra             2   11011201
      Launceston           3   21021201
      Hobart               3   21021201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   10020100
      Casey               10   33331222
      Mawson              21   22113265

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1111 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Apr     5    Quiet
04 Apr     5    Quiet
05 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the UT day, 02 April. Mostly quiet conditions 
expected for 03-04 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs are expected to remain mostly near monthly predicted 
levels, today (03 April).

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Apr     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      2
Apr      2
May      1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Apr     8    Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr     8    Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr     8    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were slightly depressed over the Niue Island Region 
on 02 April. At other Aus/NZ regions, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly levels on UT day 02 April. There were very few incidence 
of Sporadic E blanketing over the Australian Ionosonde sites. 
The three day outlook (03-05 Apr) is for MUFs to be near monthly 
predicted levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:   197000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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