[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 29 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 30 09:30:18 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Sep             01 Oct             02 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 29 September. 
Expect Very Low activity for the next three days (30 September 
- 2 October), with a chance of C-class flares. No Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 29 
September. The solar wind remained enhanced due to the coronal 
hole but speeds decreased over the past 24 hours from a high 
of 700 km/s at 29/0042UT to 540 km/s currently. The IMF Bt started 
the UT day around 4 nT and is currently around 3 nT. The Bz component 
of IMF has been mainly southward with a maximum southward deflection 
of only around -4 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue 
to decline but remain enhanced over the next two days (30 September 
- 01 October), returning to nominal values on 02 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 29 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22233212
      Cocos Island         6   21132221
      Darwin               7   22133112
      Townsville           8   22233112
      Learmonth           11   32234222
      Alice Springs        8   22233212
      Norfolk Island       7   22223112
      Culgoora             8   22233212
      Gingin              12   32234322
      Camden               8   22233212
      Canberra             8   22233212
      Launceston          12   22344212
      Hobart               9   21234212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    27   32366312
      Casey               16   44433222
      Mawson              34   54534355
      Davis               25   33434255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              44   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            84   (Minor storm)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        41
           Planetary             44   5665 4334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Sep    14    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods
01 Oct    12    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible Active periods
02 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mainly Quiet to Unsettled across 
the Australian region on the UT day, 29 September, with an Active 
period in the middle of the UT day. Minor to Major Storm periods 
were observed in the the Antarctic region. Magnetic activity 
is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels on 30 September 
- 01 October, with possible Active periods, and Quiet to Unsettled 
on 2 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Sep    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Sep    10    Near predicted monthly values
01 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values
02 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were mainly near predicted 
monthly values across most of the Australian/NZ and Antarctic 
Regions. MUFs were enhanced in the Northern Australian Region 
during the local day. The three day outlook (30 September - 02 
October) is for the MUFs to be mainly near monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 666 km/sec  Density:    8.6 p/cc  Temp:   546000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list