[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 September 17 issued 2348 UT on 27 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 28 09:48:50 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 91/36 91/36 91/36
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for the UT day, 27 September.
Expect Very Low to Low levels of solar activity for the next
three days (28-30 September), with a chance of C-class flares
and a slight chance of M-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 27 September.
The solar wind became enhanced on UT day 27 September due to
the arrival of a CIR and positive-polarity CH HSS. The wind speed
peaked at 714 km/s at 27/2040UT and is currently varying between
600-700 km/s. The IMF Bt reached a maximum of 17 nT at 27/0640UT
and is currently around 11 nT. The Bz component of IMF reached
a minimum of around -17 nT at 27/0640UT. It had several extended
southward periods and is currently fluctuating between +/-12
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced on 28-29
September but start to decline on 30 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 17 22433344
Cocos Island 12 23323242
Darwin 17 32433244
Townsville 20 32434344
Alice Springs 16 22433244
Norfolk Island 16 32433243
Culgoora 17 32333344
Gingin 26 31345454
Camden 17 22433344
Canberra 17 22433344
Launceston 21 23444344
Hobart 19 22344344
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
Macquarie Island 31 22456444
Casey 22 35433244
Mawson 44 33444476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1120 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 27 Active to Minor Storm
29 Sep 25 Active to Minor Storm
30 Sep 20 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 48 was issued on 26 September
and is current for 27-29 Sep. Magnetic conditions were Quiet
to Unsettled across the Australian region at the start of the
UT day, 27 September, then increased to Unsettled to Active levels,
with an isolated Minor Storm, later in the day. Magnetic activity
is expected to be at Active levels on 28 September, with possible
Minor Storm levels and isolated periods of Major Storms in the
Antarctic region, then Unsettled to Active on 29 September with
the chance of Minor Storms, and Unsettled to Active on 30 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
29 Sep Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Possible degraded HF communication between 28-29 September
due to minor geomagnetic storming. MUFs are expected to be slightly
enhanced compared to the predicted monthly levels, but with possible
minor depressions at mid to higher latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
29 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
30 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours, MUFs were near predicted monthly
values in the Northern Australian Region and enhanced in the
Southern and Antarctic regions. The two day outlook (28-29 September)
is for the MUFs to be slightly enhanced compared to the predicted
monthly levels, but with possible minor depressions at mid-high
latitudes in the early local mornings. This is in response to
Active to Minor Storm geomagnetic conditions associated with
the passage of a coronal hole. MUFs are expected to return to
near predicted monthly values on 30 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 315 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 12700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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