[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 September 17 issued 2330 UT on 14 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 15 09:30:17 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 14 September,
with no flares. Expect very low levels of solar activity for
the next three UT days (15-17 September) with some chance of
C-class flares. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph imagery for UT day 14 September. The
solar winds increased gradually throughout the UT day 14 September,
changing from ~400 km/s to ~700 km/s. This increase was in response
to the anticipated arrival of the high speed streams (HSS) from
the Northern Hemisphere coronal hole. The IMF Bt was steady near
6 nT up till 14/1100 UT and thereafter peaked to 22 nT at 14/1430
UT and then dropping back to 6 nT by the end of the UT day. The
Bz component of the IMF also fluctuated strongly between 14/1100
UT and 14/1430 UT, ranging between -18 nT and +18 nT. At other
times, IMF Bz was mostly near 0 nT. These enhancements in IMF
conditions is due to the arrival of corotation interaction region
(CIR), which was followed by the HSS from coronal hole. The two
day outlook (15 - 16 September) is for the solar winds to be
at very high levels as to the HSS associated with coronal hole
is expected to persist for a few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 16 21133543
Cocos Island 13 21123532
Darwin 15 21133533
Townsville 17 31133543
Learmonth 17 21233543
Alice Springs 16 21133543
Norfolk Island 11 21233333
Culgoora 15 21133533
Gingin 18 21133544
Camden 15 21133533
Canberra 14 21033533
Launceston 20 22144543
Hobart 18 21134543
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
Casey 19 44333433
Mawson 36 33234547
Davis 19 23333435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 5443 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 28 Active
16 Sep 25 Active
17 Sep 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to minor storm conditions were observed across
the Australian region during the UT day, 14 September. The Australian
DST index was predominantly around -20 nT throughout the UT day.
These disturbed conditions were in response to the arrival of
CIR and subsequent HSS associated with the coronal hole. The
two day forecast is for the magnetic activity to be between unsettled
to active levels and at times reaching minor storm levels, since
the HSS from coronal hole is expected to persist for a few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1635UT 10/09, Ended at 1720UT 14/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
16 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours. Similar HF conditions are expected
to today, 15 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available .
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region, with minor periods
of enhancements. HF conditions in Australian/NZ region are expected
to be between slightly enhanced and near monthly predicted values
for the next three days due increased solar ionising radiation
and forecasted active conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.0E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 451 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 196000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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