[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 September 17 issued 2341 UT on 12 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 13 09:41:54 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for the UT day, 12 September,
with two C-class flares and few B-class flares. Both C-class
flares were from Region 2680, which currently is located at N08E42
and rotating towards the solar centre. The first C-class flare,
C3.0 peaking at 12/0729, triggered a Type II radio sweep with
a shock speed of ~900 km/s and a CME first observed in the LASCO
imagery at 12/0803 UT. The second event, C1.6 peaking at 12/1920
UT, also produced a Type II radio sweep with a shock speed of
~~670 km/s and a possible CME (no LASCO imagery was available
for the second event at the time of writing the report). Possible
impact of both these events at earth will be provided after the
completion of the model runs. The solar winds were at moderately
high levels, ranging from 450 km/s - 700 km/s during the last
24 hours. A sudden enhancements in solar wind speeds and IMF
fields were observed to occur from 12/2000 UT possibly due to
the arrival of the glancing blow from 9 September CME triggered
by X8 flare or due to the CIR effects associated with a recurrent
positive polarity Northern hemisphere coronal hole. The IMF Bt
was steady near 5 nT for the early part of the UT day and after
12/2000 UT increased to 16 nT. The Bz component of the IMF also
exhibited similar behaviour, fluctuating between -12 nT and +10
nT after 12/2000 UT. The two day outlook (13 - 14 September)
is for the solar winds to continue to trend at these moderately
elevated levels due to the high speed streams associated with
the coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 22223233
Cocos Island 8 22222133
Darwin 9 22223133
Townsville 10 22223233
Learmonth 10 22223233
Alice Springs 10 22223233
Norfolk Island 9 21223133
Culgoora 11 22223234
Gingin 12 32224233
Camden 11 22223234
Canberra 11 22223234
Launceston 12 22233234
Hobart 10 22223233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Casey 20 34434234
Mawson 77 44434388
Davis 44 34444367
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 10 (Quiet)
Gingin 83 (Minor storm)
Canberra 89 (Minor storm)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 4322 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 30 Active to Minor Storm
14 Sep 30 Active to Minor Storm
15 Sep 25 Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 12 September
and is current for 12-14 Sep. Magnetic conditions were mostly
near quiet to unsettled levels across the Australian region during
the UT day, 12 September. Storm conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. These disturbed conditions were due to moderately
elevated speed solar winds. Today, 13 September, the geomagnetic
activity is expected to reach active to minor storm levels. These
are in response to the corotating interaction region associated
with the positive polarity coronal hole now taking a geoeffective
location on the solar disk. Active to minor storm conditions
are expected to persist on 14 and 15 September due to the coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 09 2017 0235UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 11 09 2017 0215UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
14 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Sep Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: MUFs were slightly higher than the predicted monthly
values over the last 24 hours for the Southern Hemisphere. Similar
HF conditions are expected to today, 13 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 10
Sep 5
Oct 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values over
the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region, with periods of
minor enhancements. HF conditions in this region are expected
to be between slightly enhanced and near monthly predicted values
for the next three days due increased solar ionising radiation
and forecasted active conditions. High latitudes experienced
poor HF conditions most likely due to PCA effects after increased
proton levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.4E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 600 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 258000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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