[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 September 17 issued 2354 UT on 09 Sep 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 10 09:54:03 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.1 08/2346UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0431UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M3.7    1104UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Sep             11 Sep             12 Sep
Activity     Moderate to high   Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              85/27              83/24

COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours with 
region 2673(S09WW83) producing three M-class flares. The largest 
flare of the period was an M3 event peaking at 1104 UT. Region 
2673 is approaching the west limb and simplified somehow however 
further M-class flares with a chance of an other X-class flare 
are expected over the next 24 Hours from this region. An other 
M class flare is in progress at the time of this report. The 
greater than 10MeV proton flux dropped below the event threshold 
early UT day but may increase again due to expected flaring activity 
from region 2673. Soar winds associated with the 06 Sep CME impact 
have declined over the last 24 hours from 750 Km/s to 550Km/s 
at the time of this report. The Bz component of the IMF have 
become more neutral trough the UT with Btotal around 6nT. Slightly 
enhanced solar wind conditions may be observed over the next 
2 days under the influence of a small coronal hole

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21101001
      Cocos Island         1   11010001
      Darwin               2   11101002
      Townsville           3   21101012
      Learmonth            2   22101000
      Alice Springs        2   12101001
      Norfolk Island       2   22100000
      Culgoora             1   11001001
      Gingin               2   21101000
      Camden               2   21001001
      Canberra             1   21001000
      Launceston           3   22102000
      Hobart               1   11101000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
      Casey               11   34421112
      Mawson               8   43312001
      Davis               12   53411101

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        50
           Planetary            117   8444 9874     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Sep    12    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Sep    12    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 44 was issued on 8 September 
and is current for 8-10 Sep. Solar wind speed remained moderately 
enhanced after the passage of 06 September CME , while Bz become 
more neutral through the UT day. This caused a decline in geomagnetic 
activity. Geomagnetic conditions subsided to Quiet levels over 
the Australian region on 09 Sep. A small coronal hole may increase 
the geomagnetic activity to Unsettled levels over the next two 
days. The possibility of further CMEs associated with currently 
active region effecting the Earth has decreased and will continue 
to decrease as the region moves beyond the western limb over 
the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Poor-fair      Poor-fair      Poor-fair      

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0020UT 05/09, Ended at 1455UT 08/09
 and, 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1645UT 08/09, Ended at 2255UT 08/09

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Fair           Poor-fair      Poor-fair
11 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Expect disturbed ionosphere and degraded HF communication 
conditions over the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Sep    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      10
Sep      5
Oct      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Sep   -10    20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
11 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 7 September 
and is current for 8-10 Sep. Propagation conditions throughout 
the UT day were highly variable with enhancements from solar 
flare activity compounding with depressions due to geomagnetic 
activity. Disturbed periods observed for low to Mid latitudes. 
High latitudes experienced poor HF conditions. Notable instance 
of Sporadic E blaketing and strong spread F observed for all 
regions. Similar, yet improving conditions may be expected to 
prevail over the next 24 hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.7E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 763 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:   885000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

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