[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 October 17 issued 2346 UT on 27 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 28 10:46:36 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
There are currently 2 regions on the visible disk, region 2685
(S09W07) and region 2686 (N13E13) and both remain quiet and stable.
Region 2686 was the source of a minor flare event over the last
24 hours, a B1.8 flare at 0044UT. No earthward directed CMEs
were observed in the available LASCO C2 imagery. The solar wind
speed continued to decline due to the waning influence of the
recent recurrent coronal hole. Solar wind speed was ~500km/s
at 01UT and is currently 430km/s at the time of this report.
Bz ranged between +1 and -2nT over the UT day. Very Low to Low
solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with only a slight
chance of C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11110022
Cocos Island 1 10110011
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 3 11110022
Learmonth 2 10100022
Alice Springs 2 11000012
Norfolk Island 6 21022132
Culgoora 3 21110021
Gingin 2 11110012
Camden 3 11110022
Canberra 2 11110021
Launceston 3 11120022
Hobart 2 11120011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 11120011
Casey 10 33421112
Mawson 12 42311134
Davis 10 32521011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 4234 3431
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 7 Quiet
29 Oct 6 Quiet
30 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the Australian region
for 27Oct. Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 27 October with
mildly depressed MUF's for mid to low latitudes. Similar HF conditions
and near predicted monthly MUF values expected for 28Oct-30Oct.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct -11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Notable MUF depressions of ~20% observed for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day for 27Oct. MUFs
expected to return to near predicted monthly values over the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 292000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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