[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 October 17 issued 2345 UT on 25 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 26 10:45:36 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    79/19              78/17              77/16

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours. 
There are currently 2 regions on the visible disk, region 2685 
(S09E19) and region 2686 (N13E39) and both remain quiet and stable. 
No earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO 
C2 imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 550km/s and 676km/s 
over the UT day and is currently ~560km/s at the time of this 
report. Bz fluctuated between +/-8nT between 00UT and 08UT, after 
which Btotal decreased in magnitude and Bz fluctuated between 
+/-4nT with only brief southward excursions. Solar wind speed 
is expected to remain at these elevated levels for the next 24-48 
hours due to the influence of a recurrent positive polarity coronal 
hole that extends from the equator up to the north pole of the 
sun. Very Low to Low solar activity is expected for the next 
3 days with only a slight chance of C-class flares.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   33432222
      Cocos Island         8   32322211
      Darwin              11   33332222
      Townsville          12   33432222
      Learmonth           12   33332322
      Alice Springs       12   33432222
      Norfolk Island      10   23332222
      Culgoora            12   33432222
      Gingin              15   43422323
      Camden              12   33432222
      Canberra            12   33432222
      Launceston          12   33432222
      Hobart              12   33432222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    22   34554221
      Casey               20   55432222
      Mawson              60   65643367
      Davis               33   44544246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              96   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            85   (Minor storm)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        22
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             14   2122 4324     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct    20    Active
27 Oct    14    Unsettled to Active
28 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic conditions for the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remains elevated 
under the influence of a recurrent coronal hole high speed solar 
wind stream which is still capable of inducing Active to Storm 
level conditions should sustained southward Bz periods eventuate. 
Mostly Unsettled with possible Active to Minor Storm periods 
for 26Oct-27Oct and Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 28Oct.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor
27 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
28 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: MUF's near predicted monthly values for 25Oct with some 
minor depressed periods for low-mid latitudes and degraded conditions 
for high latitudes. Similar conditions are expected 26Oct-27Oct 
due to elevated geomagnetic activity. MUFs expected to be near 
predicted monthly values for 28Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Oct     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      20
Oct      5
Nov      4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30%
27 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
28 Oct     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 25 October 
and is current for 25-26 Oct. Minor MUF depressions for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions and Northern AUS/Equatorial regions for 25Oct. 
MUF depressions of ~20% for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ 
regions possible over the next 24-48 hours. Degraded ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions expected during this period. MUFs 
expected to be near predicted monthly values for 28Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 451 km/sec  Density:   11.0 p/cc  Temp:   246000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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