[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 16 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 17 10:30:28 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 16 October.
The visible solar disk is currently spotless. Expect Very Low
levels of solar activity for the next three days (17-19 October).
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO C2
imagery up to 16/1606UT. The solar wind varied mostly between
550 and 520 km/s over the past 24 hours. The IMF Btotal ranged
between 2-5 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/-4
nT. The solar wind is expected to return to nominal levels during
the UT day, 17 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 12122011
Townsville 6 12123112
Learmonth 6 12123122
Norfolk Island 5 22122022
Culgoora 4 12122011
Camden 4 12122011
Canberra 2 01022001
Launceston 6 22222121
Hobart 4 12122011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 6 12133110
Casey 14 34432222
Mawson 29 34433265
Davis 25 34533254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 27 4634 4332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Oct 6 Quiet
19 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The magnetic field over Australia was at mostly Quiet
levels for the UT day, 16 October. The Antarctic region was at
Active to Quiet levels. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next three days in the Australian region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Expect near predicted MUFs to minor depressions for
the next three days due to very low solar activity levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Near predicted MUFs to Minor depressions observed in
the Australian region over the UT day, 16 October. Expect this
trend to continue due to very low levels of solar activity. Sporadic
E and Spread F were also observed at times across the Australian
region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 566 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 449000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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