[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 October 17 issued 2330 UT on 07 Oct 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 8 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Oct 09 Oct 10 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today (UT day 7 October).
Four B-class flares were observed today, the largest being a
B4.9 flare from region 2683. The B4.9 flare peaked at 0223 UT.
There is currently one numbered sunspot group (2683) on the earthward
side of the solar disk. It is stable and having a simple magnetic
configurations of alpha. The solar wind speed varied mostly between
390 and 450 km/s during the UT day today. The total IMF, Bt,
varied mostly between 5 and 8 nT today. IMF Bz showed variations
in the approximate range of +6/-4 nT most of the times today.
Solar wind stream may weaken through UT day 8 October due to
the waning of the effect of the recurrent negative polarity coronal
hole. Very low levels of solar activity may be expected for the
next three days (8 to 10 October) with a low possibility of C-class
activity during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 11011111
Learmonth 4 22101212
Norfolk Island 3 01121112
Culgoora 2 11001111
Camden 2 11001111
Launceston 2 11011111
Hobart 1 11000101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 10------
Casey 48 55------
Mawson 11 23------
Davis 7 23221221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3220 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Oct 6 Quiet
09 Oct 4 Quiet
10 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 7 October. Mostly quiet geomagnetic
conditions may be expected for the next three days (8 to 10 October)
with a small possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 8 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 20 % during the UT day 7 October. MUFs may be expected to
stay mostly near monthly predicted values from 8 to 10 October
UT days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Oct 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 20
Oct 5
Nov 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
10 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
by 15 % across the Australian/NZ regions during the UT day 7
October. MUF enhancements of up to 20% were observed in the Antarctic
regions on the day. MUFs in the Aus/NZ region may be expected
to stay mostly near monthly predicted values from 8 to 10 October
UT days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 177000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list