[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 November 17 issued 2345 UT on 25 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 26 10:45:28 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 74/11
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
An eastward directed CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from
07UT. Further analysis is underway to determine if there will
be any geoeffective component. Solar wind speed ranged between
383km/s and 447km/s between 00UT-13UT. From 13UT onwards solar
wind speed gradually declined to be 333km/s at the time of this
report. Btotal reached a maximum of 7nT between 01-02UT after
which it decreased to currently be 1nT. Bz ranged between +5nT
and -4nT during the first half of the the UT day. Solar wind
speeds are expected to remain at ambient levels for the next
24 hours. Between 27Nov-28Nov the solar wind is expected to be
influenced by a high speed solar wind stream from an equatorially
located negative-polarity coronal hole. Very Low solar flare
activity is expected for the next three days with the slight
chance of C-class events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 43111100
Cocos Island 3 32010100
Darwin 5 42110101
Townsville 6 42111011
Learmonth 8 52110101
Alice Springs 5 42110000
Norfolk Island 5 33110002
Culgoora 5 33111100
Gingin 8 52110100
Camden 5 33111100
Canberra 4 33111000
Launceston 6 43111100
Hobart 6 43111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 42121000
Casey 16 55321211
Mawson 9 33221232
Davis 14 33332431
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 2131 1153
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Nov 5 Quiet
27 Nov 13 Unsettled to Active
28 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions with Active periods in
the first half of the UT day over the Australian region for 25Nov.
Quiet conditions expected for 26Nov. Unsettled to Active conditions
expected for 27Nov and Quiet to Unsettled conditions for 28Nov
due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
27 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for 25Nov. Similar
ionospheric support is expected for 26Nov-27Nov. Slight MUF depressions
for high-mid latitudes possible 28Nov due to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Nov 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
28 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs near predicted monthly values for all regions over
the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected fo the the
next 2 days. Possible MUF depressions of 25% for Southern AUS/NZ
regions and disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
on 28Nov due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 66900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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