[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 23 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 24 10:30:19 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 NOVEMBER - 26 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Nov: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible disk remains spotless and there were no earthward
directed CMEs observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 500 km/s to 400 km/s over
the UT day today (23 November) due to the waning influence of
the recent positive polarity coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream. The Bz component of the IMF mostly ranged between +4nT
and -4nT, whereas the total IMF Bt varied between 2 and 6 nT
today. The solar wind speed is expected to further decrease over
the next 24 hours. Very Low solar flare activity is expected
for the next three UT days (24 to 26 November).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 11223212
Cocos Island 4 11121112
Darwin 5 11122212
Townsville 8 21223123
Learmonth 8 12223223
Alice Springs 7 11223213
Norfolk Island 7 11223222
Culgoora 5 11222112
Gingin 8 21123223
Camden 6 11223112
Canberra 5 11222112
Launceston 10 22233223
Hobart 6 12223112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Nov :
Macquarie Island 9 11334211
Casey 14 34432222
Mawson 23 54233335
Davis 15 34343222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3322 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Nov 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
25 Nov 4 Quiet
26 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
for the Australian region over the last 24 hours. Solar wind
speed is currently declining due to diminishing effects of the
recent high speed solar wind stream (HSSWS) from a recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions
are expected for the next 3 days (UT days 24 to 26 November)
with slight possibility of isolated Unsettled periods on 24 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal
26 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from slight enhancements
to notable depressed MUFs by 25% were observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
next three days (24 to 26 November UT days).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Nov 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
25 Nov 2 Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions ranging from slight enhancements
to notable depressed MUFs by 25% for Equatorial/Northern AUS
and Southern AUS/NZ regions were observed over the last 24 hours.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected in the Aus/NZ regions
for the next three days (24 to 26 November UT days).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Nov
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 236000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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