[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 15 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 16 10:30:24 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 15 November. There
is currently one numbered active region, 2687 (S08E56), on the
visible disk. Very Low solar flare activity is expected for the
next three UT days with a slight chance of C-class flares. No
earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available LASCO
imagery up to 15/1900 UT. The solar wind speed increased from
a low of 370 km/s to 500 km/s over the last 24 hours and is currently
around 500 km/s due to weak recurrent coronal hole. The interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) Bt went from 3 nT to 15 nT over the same
period and is currently 11 nT. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
between -8 nT and +12 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain
slightly elevated over the UT day, 16 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 13 11333433
Cocos Island 10 21222432
Darwin 11 11233432
Townsville 13 11333433
Learmonth 15 21233533
Alice Springs 14 11233532
Norfolk Island 11 12333332
Culgoora 13 11333433
Gingin 12 21232433
Camden 13 11333433
Canberra 13 11343333
Launceston 17 12443433
Hobart 13 12343422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 25 11464522
Casey 16 33343333
Mawson 19 43333443
Davis 18 33333443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 13 3332 2423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly Quiet to Unsettled
across the Australian region with Active conditions observed
at mid UT day, 15 November, due to a prolonged negative Bz component
of the IMF. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected
for the next three days with isolated periods of Active levels
likely if the Bz turns negative.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted MUFs expected with minor depressions
likely in the higher southern latitudes due to weak geomagnetic
activity with seasonal effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
17 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
18 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region MUFs
were mostly near predicted monthly values with depressions of
15%-20% observed in the Southern Australian region during local
day and the Antarctica region as a consequence of the recent
increased geomagnetic activity. Sporadic E was observed throughout
the Australian region. Today expect minor depressions over the
UT day, 16 November, particularly in southern Australia and a
return to mostly near predicted MUFs with some minor depressions
in the Southern Australian region on 17-18 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 80400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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