[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 November 17 issued 2330 UT on 03 Nov 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 4 10:30:21 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 73/9
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 3 Nov, with no
solar flares. There is currently 1 numbered solar region on the
visible disk, region 2686 (N13W73), which remains quiet and stable.
Very low solar flare activity is expected for the next three
UT days (04-06 Nov). A 12-degree filament eruption was observed
near N40E11 at 0640 UT. No earthward directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO imagery on UT day 3 Nov. The solar wind
speed was moderately elevated and remained relatively stable
varying in the range 400-440 km/s. The moderate enhancement in
the solar wind speed is in response to the effects from a negative
polarity low latitude recurrent coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere. The IMF Bt fluctuated between 4 nT and 8 nT. The
Bz component of IMF fluctuated between -7 nT and +5 nT. The IMF
Bz has been mostly southward since 02/1915 UT to 03/0235 UT.
The outlook for today (4 Nov) is for the solar wind speed to
be at moderately elevated levels as the high speed streams associated
with the coronal hole persist. From UT day 5 Nov, the solar winds
are expected to begin to decline as the coronal effects start
to wane.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 21233011
Cocos Island 4 11123110
Darwin 5 11223011
Townsville 7 21333011
Learmonth 8 22333111
Alice Springs 6 21233010
Norfolk Island 7 22233021
Culgoora 6 21233011
Gingin 9 21234121
Camden 7 21333011
Canberra 6 21233011
Launceston 11 22344011
Hobart 9 22334010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 22235000
Casey 26 45643122
Mawson 14 43333232
Davis 13 33433122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 8 3211 1114
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Nov 5 Quiet
06 Nov 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 3 Nov.
The disturbed magnetic conditions are in response to the moderately
elevated solar winds emanating from the southern hemisphere coronal
hole. For 4 Nov, the magnetic activity is expected to be mostly
quiet to unsettled levels because the high speed streams from
the coronal hole persist. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for 5-6 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed for 3 Nov.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 UT days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 4
Nov 5
Dec 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Over the last 24 hours in the Australian/NZ region MUFs
were near predicted monthly values with minor depressions during
local night. The three day outlook (4-6 Nov) is for the MUFs
to be near predicted monthly values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list