[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 May 17 issued 2345 UT on 12 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 13 09:45:51 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no significant flare activity or earth directed CMEs observed 
in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 
~~358km/s and ~434km/s over the UT day. The IMF north-south component 
(Bz) varied between +5nT and -3nT with no sustained southward 
excursions. Solar wind parameters are currently at ambient levels 
and should remain so for the next 2 days. An increase in solar 
wind speed is expected from 15May with the arrival of a high 
speed solar wind stream from a positive polarity equatorially 
located coronal hole. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three days with the chance of C-class flare activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11222111
      Cocos Island         4   11222111
      Darwin               6   22222112
      Townsville           8   22233122
      Alice Springs        5   21222111
      Culgoora             4   11122111
      Gingin               4   11112122
      Camden               4   11122111
      Canberra             2   11122000
      Launceston           6   12232111
      Hobart               3   11122110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00121000
      Casey                6   22221222
      Mawson              15   22432244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            47   (Unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   2321 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May     5    Quiet
14 May     5    Quiet
15 May    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the 
last 24 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for 
the next 2 days with Unsettled and possible isolated Active periods 
on 15May due to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
15 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with minor MUF depressions 
in low and mid-latitude regions observed for 12May. Similar conditions 
are expected for 13May-14May. Depressed MUFs for mid latitudes 
and disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes for 15May 
due to increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 May     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
14 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
15 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed for 12May with depressed 
MUFs for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ stations 
during local day and near predicted monthly values during local 
night. Mostly poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions. 
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days. Notable 
MUF depressions are expected for Southern AUS/NZ regions 15May 
due to increased geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:   10.3 p/cc  Temp:    14400 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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