[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 May 17 issued 2344 UT on 10 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Thu May 11 09:44:55 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 May             12 May             13 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no significant flare activity or earth directed CMEs observed 
in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 
~~335km/s and ~410km/s over the UT day. The IMF north-south component 
(Bz) varied between +/-6nT with no sustained southward excursions. 
Solar wind parameters are currently at ambient levels and there 
is a slight chance of a small enhancement in the solar wind speed 
on 11May due to a slow moving weak CME (from 04May) that may 
result in a glancing blow effect. Very Low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three days with the chance of C-class 
flare activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11002112
      Cocos Island         3   11102012
      Darwin               4   21102112
      Townsville           3   21002112
      Learmonth            1   10002100
      Alice Springs        3   11002112
      Culgoora             3   11002112
      Gingin               2   11001102
      Camden               2   11001112
      Canberra             0   00001001
      Launceston           2   11001102
      Hobart               1   11001101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000100
      Casey                4   22201111
      Mawson              11   33102005

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2111 2322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 May    12    Unsettled
12 May     6    Quiet
13 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 10 May and 
is current for 10-11 May. Quiet conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 
11May as there is a small chance of a weak glancing blow CME 
arrival in the next 24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions for 
12May-13May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Variable propagation conditions observed over the last 
24 hours with notable enhancements and depressions for low to 
mid latitudes and poor ionospheric support for some high latitude 
stations. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days 
with the chance of disturbed ionospheric support and depressed 
MUFs for mid to high latitude stations 11May if there is an increase 
in geomagnetic activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 May    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 May    15    Near predicted monthly values
12 May    15    Near predicted monthly values
13 May    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable MUF's observed over the UT day for 10May. Notable 
depressed MUFs for some Equatorial and Northern AUS stations 
during local day and enhanced MUFs for Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions during local evening. Mostly poor ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. Disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic 
regions and depressed MUFs for Southern AUS/NZ regions during 
local evening 11May to local dawn 12May if geomagnetic activity 
increases over the next 12-24 hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    7.7 p/cc  Temp:    25100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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