[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 May 17 issued 2353 UT on 08 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 9 09:53:56 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours with 
no significant flare activity or earth directed CMEs observed 
in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 
332km/s and 419km/s over the UT day. The IMF north-south component 
(Bz) varied between +/-5nT between 00UT-14UT after which its 
magnitude decreased to fluctuate between +/-2nT up until the 
time of this report. Solar wind speed is expected to remain at 
nominal levels over the next 24-36 hours. There is a chance of 
a minor enhancement in the solar wind parameters on the 10May 
due to the anticipated arrival of a slow moving weak CME (from 
04May) that may result in a glancing blow effect. Very Low levels 
of solar activity are expected for the next three days with the 
chance of C-class flare activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21220121
      Cocos Island         4   11211220
      Darwin               5   21221221
      Townsville           5   22221121
      Learmonth            4   21210220
      Alice Springs        4   21220121
      Culgoora             6   -3220121
      Gingin               5   21210231
      Camden               4   11220121
      Canberra             2   10210010
      Launceston           4   21220121
      Hobart               4   21210121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
      Macquarie Island     2   20100011
      Casey                8   23320231
      Mawson              24   53531153

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2231 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May     4    Quiet
10 May    13    Unsettled to Active
11 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be at Quiet levels for 09May. There is a chance 
of Unsettled to Active periods for 10May due to weak glancing 
blow CME effects and Quiet to Unsettled periods for 11May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor
11 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced propagation conditions observed 
over the last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes and some high 
latitude stations. Similar conditions are expected fo the next 
2 days. Chance of disturbed ionospheric support for some mid 
to high latitude stations from 10May due to a possible increase 
in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May    15    Near predicted monthly values
10 May    15    Near predicted monthly values
11 May     5    About 15% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUF's were near monthly predicted values to enhanced 
over the UT day for 08May. Notable enhanced periods for some 
Low latitude stations and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar conditions 
are expected for 09May-10May. Possible disturbed ionospheric 
support for Antarctic regions and depressed MUFs for Northern 
AUS to Southern AUS/NZ regions for 10May-11May due to anticipated 
increase in geomagnetic activity on these days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:    42100 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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