[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 May 17 issued 2343 UT on 06 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Sun May 7 09:43:53 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 May             08 May             09 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 6 May. Very 
Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days (7-9 May) with a chance for C-class flares. No Earth 
directed CMEs have been detected in the available SOHO LASCO 
coronagraph images. Modeling results of the weak slow-moving 
CME observed on 5 May, indicate that there is a slight chance 
that it will impact Earth later on the UT day 9 May but it is 
expected to be only a weak glancing blow. The solar wind speed 
varied between 310 to 380 km/s for the past 24 hours, currently 
around 350 km/s. The IMF Bt varied between 4 to 9 nT over the 
last 24 hours. The Bz component varied between -2.0 to 7.4 nT 
but was mainly Northward. Solar winds are expected to remain 
at nominal levels over the next three UT days (7-9 May) with 
the slight chance of minor enhancements later on 9 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   22110000
      Cocos Island         2   12110000
      Darwin               3   22111011
      Townsville           4   22211011
      Learmonth            2   12110000
      Alice Springs        2   22110001
      Culgoora             2   12110000
      Gingin               2   12110000
      Camden               3   22111001
      Canberra             1   12100000
      Launceston           2   22110001
      Hobart               2   22100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000000
      Casey                2   22200000
      Mawson               4   12201013

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3100 1221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 May     5    Quiet
08 May     5    Quiet
09 May     7    Quiet, with slight chance of unsettled periods 
                later in the day

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 6 May, Magnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly Quiet over the next three UT days, 
7-9 May, with the slight chance of unsettled periods later in 
the UT day 9 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 May     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 May     0    Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
08 May     5    Near predicted monthly values
09 May    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For the UT day 6 May, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels over the Southern Australian region. The Northern 
Australian and Niue Island regions experienced Minor to Moderate 
depressions. The Antarctic region had Enhanced MUFs. Some Sporadic 
E was observed, mainly in the low latitudes. It is expected that 
the Australian region may experience Minor depressions in MUFs, 
with the chance of Moderate depressions, on UT day 7 May, returning 
to near predicted monthly values on UT day 8 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    4.5 p/cc  Temp:    16100 K  Bz:   6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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