[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 May 17 issued 2338 UT on 04 May 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Fri May 5 09:38:51 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MAY 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    76/14              76/14              76/14

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 4 May. Very 
Low levels of solar activity are expected for the next 3 UT days 
(5-7 May) with a chance for C-class flares. No Earth directed 
CMEs have been detected in the available SOHO LASCO coronagraph 
images. The solar wind speed gradually increased over the UT 
day, starting around 335 km/s and currently around 365 km/s. 
The IMF Bt varied between 0.7-4.5 nT and the Bz component varied 
between -1.6 to +3.4 nT for most of the UT day, 4 May. Both the 
IMF Bt and Bz component had increased fluctuations after around 
04/1750 UT, with Bt reaching 8.5 nT and Bz dropping to -6.6 nT. 
This may be due to the possible arrival of the weak slow-moving 
CME from 30 April which was expected to have a glancing impact 
at Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01110012
      Cocos Island         3   11110013
      Darwin               3   11110013
      Townsville           4   12111013
      Learmonth            3   11100013
      Alice Springs        3   01110013
      Culgoora             2   01110012
      Gingin               2   01101012
      Camden               2   01110012
      Canberra             2   01100012
      Launceston           3   01201112
      Hobart               2   01101002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000002
      Casey                5   13301012
      Mawson              13   23421015

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1001 1211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May    12    Unsettled, with chance of isolated Active periods
06 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
07 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 3 May and is 
current for 3-5 May. Magnetic conditions were mostly at Quiet 
levels across the Australian region during the UT day, 4 May, 
reaching Unsettled levels late in the day. This increase in geomagnetic 
activity may be due to the possible arrival of the weak slow 
moving CME from 30 April which was expected to have a glancing 
impact at Earth. Magnetic conditions are expected to be Unsettled, 
with the chance of isolated periods of Active levels, on UT day 
5 May, followed by Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 6 May 
and Quiet levels on UT day 7 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 May     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      14
May      12
Jun      12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May     0    Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
06 May     0    Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
07 May    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For the UT day, 04 May, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels over the Southern Australian region with some 
Minor depressions in the Northern Australian and Niue Island 
regions. MUFs were enhanced in the Cocos Island region during 
the local day. Sporadic E was observed, mainly in the low latitudes. 
MUFs are expected to have minor depressions on 05 May due to 
possible minor geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 380 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    36900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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