[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 April 17 issued 2330 UT on 30 Apr 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Mon May 1 09:30:22 EST 2017 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 May             02 May             03 May
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 30 April, 
with only B-class flares. Very low level of solar activity is 
expected for the next 3 UT days (1-3 May) with a chance for C-class 
flares. The strongest flare, B3.0, peaking at 30/0057 UT from 
Region 2653 (~S09W39) has triggered a CME, which is first visible 
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery starting at approximately 30/0324 
UT. Further information on the possible impact of this CME on 
earth will be given after the completion of the model runs. The 
solar wind speed were near the nominal level of 375 km/s throughout 
the UT day. The IMF Bt was mostly steady near 4 nT during the 
UT day. The Bz component varied between -2 nT and +2 nT. The 
two day outlook (1-2 May) is for the solar winds to remain near 
the nominal levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11011011
      Cocos Island         1   11001010
      Darwin               2   11011011
      Learmonth            2   11111010
      Alice Springs        1   10011010
      Norfolk Island       5   10122222
      Culgoora             2   11011011
      Gingin               2   11010020
      Camden               2   11021011
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Launceston           3   01121111
      Hobart               2   01121011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     1   00120010
      Casey                6   23211121
      Mawson              14   43332233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2121 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 May     6    Quiet
02 May     6    Quiet
03 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were mostly at quiet levels across 
the Australian region during the UT day, 30 April. Mostly quiet 
and occasional unsettled conditions are expected for the UT days 
1-2 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near monthly predicted values on the 
UT day 30 April. Similar conditions are expected for today 1 
May

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Apr    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      11
Apr      14
May      14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 May    15    Near predicted monthly values
02 May    15    Near predicted monthly values
03 May    15    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: For the UT day, 30 April, MUFs were mostly near monthly 
predicted levels over the Australian region. The outlook for 
the next three UT days (1-3 May) is for near monthly predicted 
MUF levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    6.8 p/cc  Temp:   182000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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