[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 16 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Fri Mar 17 10:30:23 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Very low solar activity has been observed over the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed varied between 375 and 430 km/s
until 1400 UT and then dropped down to around 360 km/s by the
end of the UT day today (16 March). The north south component
of the IMF, Bz ranged between +/-5 nT until 0800 UT and then
stayed closer to the normal value during this time. Solar wind
speeds are expected to remain at these nominal levels over the
next 3 days. Very Low levels of solar activity are expected for
the next 3 days (from 17 to 19 March UT).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 21001001
Cocos Island 1 20000001
Darwin 2 20101001
Townsville 2 21012001
Learmonth 2 21012001
Alice Springs 2 21001001
Norfolk Island 2 20002001
Culgoora 2 21002001
Gingin 2 21001011
Canberra 1 20001000
Launceston 3 21102101
Hobart 2 21002001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 21002010
Casey 8 43222002
Mawson 21 53122126
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1121 1013
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
18 Mar 5 Quiet
19 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over the
last 24 hours. Nearly similar conditions are expected for the
next three days (17 to 19 March UT) with some possibility of
isolated unsettled periods on 17 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values for the
last 24 hours with mild depressions for some low latitude regions.
Nearly similar HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days
(17 to 19 March UT).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 14 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 16 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 16 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs across the Australian/NZ region were mostly near
predicted monthly values for the last 24 hours with mild depressions
for some Northern AUS and Equatorial regions. Nearly similar
HF conditions are expected for the next 3 days (17 to 19 March
UT).
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 11.0 p/cc Temp: 50300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list