[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 March 17 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at sws.bom.gov.au
Thu Mar 2 10:30:22 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 81/22 82/23 81/22
COMMENT: Solar activity was at very low levels during the UT
day 1 March. Very low to low levels of solar activity are expected
for the next 3 UT days (2-4 March). No earthward directed CME
was observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed
was steady, varying in the range 390-410 km/s up to 0810 UT.
Then it increased and reached its maximum value of 720 km/s at
2120 UT due to a high speed stream associated with the negative
polarity recurrent coronal hole. A CIR ahead of this stream was
observed since 0700 UT as an increase in the interplanetary magnetic
field; Bt reached its maximum value of 21 nT and Bz reached its
minimum value of -17 nT approximately at 1116 UT. During the
next 24 h the solar wind speed is expected to be high.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 20 23245433
Cocos Island 15 12-34343
Darwin 18 23245333
Townsville 21 23345433
Learmonth 25 32245544
Alice Springs 18 23245333
Norfolk Island 16 23244333
Culgoora 20 23245433
Gingin 27 22245554
Canberra 14 12244333
Launceston 29 23355544
Hobart 25 12255534
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 42 12265744
Casey 26 34544344
Mawson 47 33445476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 36
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2310 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 23 Active to Minor Storm
03 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 27 February
and is current for 28 Feb to 2 Mar. Across the Australian region
on UT day 1 March geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled
levels up to 0900 UT, then it reached active to minor storm levels
due to the effect of the high speed solar wind stream from a
negative polarity recurrent coronal hole. Similar conditions
are likely for 2 March, then geomagnetic activity is expected
to gradually decrease to unsettled to active levels on 3 March
and quiet to unsettled levels on 4 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values during
UT day 1 March. Degradations in HF conditions are observed in
the second half of UT day 1 March due to increased geomagnetic
activity. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions are likely during the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 10
Mar 16
Apr 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
30%
03 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
30%
04 Mar 5 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 16 was issued
on 28 February and is current for 28 Feb to 2 Mar. MUFs were
mostly near predicted monthly values across the Australian regions
during UT day 1 March with minor to moderate MUF depressions.
Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
are likely during 2-4 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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