[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 June 17 issued 2338 UT on 22 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 23 09:38:44 EST 2017


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jun             24 Jun             25 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for the UT day, 22 June. 
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days with 
a slight chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed 
averaged around 340 km/s over the last 24 hours. The B total 
interplanetary magnetic field increased over the last 24 hours, 
reaching a maximum 8.8 nT around around 22/1700 UT, then started 
to decrease after 22/1845 UT. It is currently around 2 nT. The 
Bz component also increased over the last 24 hours from -5 nT 
to 8 nT, then started to decrease after approximately 22/1810 
UT. Bz is currently around 1 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain at nominal levels but may become enhanced late on 22 
June or early on 23 June due the possible arrival of the effects 
of a coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100011
      Cocos Island         1   11100011
      Darwin               2   11100021
      Townsville           2   11100021
      Learmonth            2   20100011
      Alice Springs        2   21100021
      Norfolk Island       1   01000021
      Culgoora             1   21000010
      Gingin               2   21100010
      Camden               1   21000010
      Canberra             0   10000000
      Launceston           2   21000011
      Hobart               0   10000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                2   21110001
      Mawson              10   53221011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0001 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jun    12    Quiet to Active
24 Jun    12    Quiet to Active
25 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Mostly Quiet levels across 
the Australian region. Expect Quiet to Active conditions over 
the next two days (23-24 June) due to the possible influence 
of northern high latitude (>20N) positive polarity coronal hole. 
If this coronal hole, which has grown in size since last rotation, 
is geoeffective expect Unsettled to Active conditions with possible 
isolated periods of Minor Storm levels at higher latitudes possible.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jun    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
25 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region on UT day, 22 June. Mostly near predicted 
MUFs are expected for the UT day 23 June but minor depressions 
in MUFs may occur on 24-25 June due to possible geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 340 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    23200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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