[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 June 17 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 16 09:30:20 EST 2017
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 15 June,
with no notable flares. Very low levels of solar activity is
expected for the next 3 UT days (16-18 June) with a chance of
C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed continued to trend near the
nominal level of 380km/s over the last 24 hours. The IMF Bt was
mostly steady near 5 nT during the UT day. The Bz component of
the IMF varied between -2 nT and +3 nT, with no significant period
of southward Bz conditions. The speed is expected to increase
for the next 24 hours due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Darwin 1 11100000
Townsville 1 11111000
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 1 11100000
Culgoora 1 11110000
Gingin 1 11110000
Camden 1 11110000
Canberra 0 10010000
Launceston 2 11121010
Hobart 1 10110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 2 12211000
Mawson 5 32122100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1222 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 25 Quiet to Active. Possible isolated Minor Storm
levels.
17 Jun 15 Quiet to Active
18 Jun 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 31 was issued on 14 June and
is current for 15-16 Jun. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels
for the UT day, 15 June. During 16-17 June, expect activity to
increase from Quiet levels to Active levels with isolated periods
of Minor Storming due to the coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF condition in the high-latitude regions may
be observed due to expected increase in the geomagnetic activity
over the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 10
Jun 10
Jul 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
17 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over
the Australian region on UT day 15 June. Periods of Spread F
were observed at some locations. Expect similar MUF conditions
for the next three UT days, and a possibility of Minor to Moderate
depressions for Southern AUS/NZ and Antarctic regions due to
increased geomagnetic activity from coronal hole effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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