[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 June 17 issued 2342 UT on 11 Jun 2017 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

Mon Jun 12 09:42:34 EST 2017

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2017 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              78/17              76/14

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for the UT day, 11 June, 
with only one B-class flare. Very low levels of solar activity 
is expected for the next 3 UT days (12-14 June) with a chance 
of C-class flares. The B-class flare, which occurred at 11/0144 
UT from Region 2661 (N05W62), seemed to have triggered a CME 
first seen in the LASCO difference imagery data starting at ~11/0240 
UT. Update on the possible impact of this CME at Earth will be 
provided after the completion of the model runs. The solar wind 
speed increased gradually from 270 km/s to 430 km/s over the 
last 24 hours. This was in response to a small recurrent coronal 
hole. The IMF Bt was in the range of 3-13 nT during the UT day. 
The Bz component of the IMF varied between +9 nT and -13 nT, 
with strong southward Bz conditions between 11/1400 UT and 11/1600 
UT. The outlook for today (12 June) is for the solar winds to 
trend at moderately elevated levels during the passage of the 
coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   01113332
      Darwin               7   01113332
      Townsville           9   11223332
      Learmonth            8   01223332
      Alice Springs        7   01113332
      Culgoora             6   01113321
      Gingin               9   01213432
      Camden               6   01113321
      Canberra             4   01012321
      Launceston           8   01123332
      Hobart               6   01112331    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     9   01111531
      Casey               15   12112552
      Mawson              34   22223376

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2101 0101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
13 Jun     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions across the Australian region were 
at quiet levels during the first half of the UT day, 11 June, 
and thereafter reached unsettled levels. The moderately disturbed 
conditions were due to the weak enhancements in solar wind speeds 
and the significant southward Bz conditions between 11/1400 UT 
and 11/1600 UT. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 
for the UT days 12-13 June in response to the moderately elevated 
solar wind conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 3 UT days, 12-14 June, in the 
mid- and low-latitude regions. Moderate depression could occur 
in the high latitude regions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Jun     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      10
Jun      10
Jul      9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs were observed over 
the Australian region on UT day 11 June, with moderate depression 
over the Northern Australian region during the local day. Expect 
similar conditions for the next three UT days, 12-14 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 292 km/sec  Density:   10.6 p/cc  Temp:    15000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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